Sat, Nov 12, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 17 | 09 | 227 |
| DET | 115 | 116 | 39 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 17:17DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Daniel Cleary, Tomas Holmstrom · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 3:08DETIan WhiteAssists: Drew Miller, Nicklas Lidstrom · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 12:11DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Adam Burish · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 3:47DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 9:19DETDarren HelmAssists: Jiri Hudler · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 10:32DETBrad StuartAssists: Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.01 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:55DALMike Ribeiro: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:11DETNicklas Lidstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:12DETDrew Miller: Interference2 min
- P2 14:47DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:08DALAdam Burish: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:46DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:46DETJakub Kindl: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:46DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Eriksson – Benn12:35
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom11:17
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish12:12
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 1–2
- Petersen – Dowell – Wandell8:33
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Robidas14:22
xG 0.75–0.29 (72%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Fistric – Pardy13:35
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Souray – Daley2:03
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Holmstrom – Cleary – Datsyuk12:59
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Eaves – Miller – Emmerton7:29
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Hudler – Abdelkader – Helm9:42
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Franzen12:53
xG 0.67–0.75 (47%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall13:05
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Kindl2:03
xG 0.18–0.16 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Kindl12:56
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).