Thu, Nov 17, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 117 | 013 | 112 | 242 |
| SJS | 16 | 315 | 17 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:23DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 19:48SJSJoe PavelskiSHAssists: Joe Thornton, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:54SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Logan Couture, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 12:48SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicGWGAssists: Andrew Desjardins, Brad Winchester · Wrap-around, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 18:18SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Jamie McGinn · Snap, 0.38 xG1–4
- P3 9:32SJSBrad WinchesterAssists: Andrew Murray · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 13:38DETDaniel ClearyPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:28SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:36SJSJason Demers: Interference2 min
- P2 14:51DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 12:04SJSDouglas Murray: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader9:15
xG 0.78–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Filppula14:13
xG 0.84–0.71 (54%)attempts 20–17goals 0–2
- Holmstrom – Miller – Emmerton8:36
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hudler – Helm – Brunnstrom8:45
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 17–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Ericsson16:38
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall4:14
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith11:45
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Mitchell – McGinn10:21
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins8:01
xG 0.35–0.11 (75%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Couture14:13
xG 0.30–0.78 (28%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Clowe13:44
xG 0.14–0.94 (13%)attempts 9–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic16:26
xG 0.93–0.59 (61%)attempts 21–16goals 2–0
- White – Demers15:01
xG 0.00–0.50 (1%)attempts 2–20goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray17:47
xG 0.25–1.05 (19%)attempts 8–31goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).