Mon, Nov 21, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 212 | 211 | 08 | 431 |
| PHI | 013 | 212 | 07 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:42CARAlexei PonikarovskyPPAssists: Chad LaRose, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 19:45CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P2 1:34PHIJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 3:37CARChad LaRoseGWGAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 12:24PHIMatt ReadPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 18:33CARAlexei PonikarovskyPPAssists: Chad LaRose, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:31PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Interference2 min
- P1 13:29PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:53CARJussi Jokinen: Holding2 min
- P1 19:53PHIDaniel Brière: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:53CARJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:12CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:14CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:35CARTim Brent: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:07PHIAndrej Meszaros: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Skinner14:14
xG 0.98–0.89 (52%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter11:46
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Jokinen – LaRose9:21
xG 0.13–0.49 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Brent – Stewart – Sutter3:42
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – McBain11:34
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Harrison – Faulk16:36
xG 1.01–1.13 (47%)attempts 19–21goals 1–0
- Allen – Gleason17:17
xG 0.16–0.59 (21%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Nodl – Simmonds8:28
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek12:10
xG 0.89–0.57 (61%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Brière – van Riemsdyk – Read13:57
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Shelley – Rinaldo – Couturier3:15
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Marshall12:44
xG 1.27–0.19 (87%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Carle – Bourdon2:25
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:21
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).