Sat, Nov 26, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 010 | 15 | 125 |
| TBL | 110 | 311 | 113 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Brett Connolly, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 3:49TBLTom PyattGWGAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:02TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Teddy Purcell, Dana Tyrell · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 10:35TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 17:43FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jack Skille · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 19:01TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:41TBLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:54TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:04TBLTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:05FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:26TBLBrett Connolly: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:21TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:19FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:50TBLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Dadonov – Repik6:09
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg8:09
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Sturm – Kopecky – Santorelli6:44
xG 0.13–0.42 (23%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Bergenheim – Skille – Matthias10:28
xG 0.34–0.78 (31%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison13:14
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov14:42
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson10:18
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Connolly9:51
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Moore – Shannon – Pyatt7:53
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Malone – Purcell – Stamkos12:29
xG 0.36–0.38 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Shannon2:10
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Kubina10:40
xG 0.93–0.09 (91%)attempts 17–8goals 3–0
- Brewer – Hedman13:41
xG 0.21–0.37 (37%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Gilroy15:07
xG 0.44–0.78 (36%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).