Mon, Dec 5, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 112 | 112 | 233 |
| OTT | 014 | 15 | 312 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:52TBLBruno GervaisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 16:46OTTZack SmithAssists: Jared Cowen, Kaspars Daugavins · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 3:35TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 8:58OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Jason Spezza, Craig Anderson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 15:33OTTNick FolignoGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jesse Winchester · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 16:19OTTZack SmithAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Chris Phillips · Snap, 0.23 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:41TBLBrett Connolly: Elbowing2 min
- P1 10:31TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:26OTTChris Phillips: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:25OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:05TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:10OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos12:42
xG 1.05–0.74 (59%)attempts 18–13goals 2–2
- Lecavalier – Malone – Shannon6:30
xG 0.30–0.35 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Tyrell5:30
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Malone – Purcell4:26
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Gervais7:35
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman12:45
xG 0.68–0.59 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Brewer – Bergeron2:17
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Michalek – Foligno6:42
xG 0.33–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Konopka – Winchester3:07
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Michalek2:51
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler7:49
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLee – Rundblad2:56
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips13:36
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Lee – Cowen2:31
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).