Wed, Dec 7, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 116 | 39 | 06 | 13 | 534 |
| BUF | 313 | 05 | 15 | 01 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:16BUFVille LeinoPPAssists: Zack Kassian, Luke Adam · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 18:55BUFZack KassianAssists: Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 19:37BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P1 19:59PHIMax TalbotAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 5:17PHIMatt ReadAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 14:45PHIScott HartnellAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P2 17:48PHIJaromir JagrAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 18:25BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Jason Pominville, Marc-Andre Gragnani · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–4
- OT 2:37PHIClaude GirouxGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:37PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:58PHIZac Rinaldo: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 13:27BUFJoe Finley: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:29PHIAndrej Meszaros: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00BUFCorey Tropp: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:10PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:10PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:10BUFMatt Ellis: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 3:10BUFMatt Ellis: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:10BUFMatt Ellis: Instigator2 min
- P2 11:54PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux13:23
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Talbot – van Riemsdyk – Voracek13:12
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier4:08
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier4:52
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Bourdon14:10
xG 0.60–0.11 (85%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Timonen – Coburn16:13
xG 0.62–0.37 (62%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Carle – Meszaros5:33
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Roy – Stafford – Ennis12:06
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Ellis – Gerbe – Tropp3:11
xG 0.01–0.09 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek15:02
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Leino – Adam – Kassian10:49
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Finley2:57
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Sekera – McNabb4:48
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Gragnani – McNabb2:30
xG 0.01–0.01 (64%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).