Tue, Dec 13, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 016 | 113 | 12 | 344 |
| BUF | 212 | 011 | 06 | 00 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 14:16BUFPaul SzczechuraAssists: Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 15:44BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Drew Stafford, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 7:27OTTPeter ReginAssists: Brian Lee · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 0:45OTTJared CowenGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:41BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:41OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:50OTTCraig Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:22OTTColin Greening: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:14BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:06BUFTyler Ennis: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:54BUFDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:11OTTJared Cowen: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:08BUFDerek Roy: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:00BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00OTTColin Greening: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDaugavins – Condra – Smith4:09
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Greening4:33
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening7:17
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Konopka – Daugavins – Winchester2:44
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phillips – Lee9:38
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Phillips – Carkner4:11
xG 0.04–0.05 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen16:19
xG 0.50–0.58 (47%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Szczechura8:23
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
- Leino – Adam – Kassian7:43
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Roy – Stafford – Ennis11:07
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Ehrhoff13:29
xG 0.85–0.20 (81%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Regehr – Sekera12:41
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 7–19goals 2–1
- Weber – McNabb10:18
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).