Tue, Dec 13, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
30%
10%
9%
51%
BUF winsOTT wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against OTT's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Spezza–Michalek–Greening | Alfredsson–Regin–Foligno | Alfredsson–Spezza–Greening | Neil–Condra–Smith | Daugavins–Condra–Smith | Konopka–Daugavins–Winchester | Regin–Foligno–Winchester | Neil–Konopka–Winchester | Regin–Foligno–Smith | Neil–Regin–Foligno | Alfredsson–Konopka–Regin | Regin–Greening–Foligno | Karlsson–Cowen | Phillips–Lee | Carkner–Rundblad | Phillips–Carkner | Carkner–Lee | Phillips–Karlsson | Lee–Cowen | Lee–Rundblad | Karlsson–Rundblad | Phillips–Rundblad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy–Stafford–Ennis | 3:430.02–0.07 | 0:560.00–0.01 | 1:310.00–0.07 | 0:470.05–0.00 | 0:550.01–0.00 | 3:090.12–0.01 | 3:500.01–0.09 | 0:300.01–0.00 | 1:380.01–0.02 | 0:430.00–0.06 | ||||||||||||
| Pominville–Vanek–Szczechura | 1:300.09–0.08 | 1:200.18–0.02 | 0:460.00–0.00 | 1:250.03–0.13 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 4:240.09–0.20 | 1:070.00–0.00 | 0:300.03–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Leino–Adam–Kassian | 1:080.03–0.07 | 2:000.04–0.00 | 0:370.04–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.01 | 2:050.06–0.00 | 2:240.02–0.04 | 1:430.18–0.02 | 0:300.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Gaustad–McCormick–Leino | 0:300.05–0.00 | 0:580.00–0.00 | 0:580.00–0.00 | 0:300.05–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Gaustad–Pominville–Vanek | 0:370.00–0.05 | 0:500.09–0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gaustad–Leino–Kassian | 0:570.04–0.05 | 0:480.04–0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Vanek–Szczechura–Kassian | 0:450.00–0.01 | 0:350.00–0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Leopold–Ehrhoff | 0:550.15–0.00 | 2:540.20–0.10 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 1:500.03–0.05 | 0:470.02–0.00 | 1:020.04–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.01 | 4:160.26–0.04 | 3:220.00–0.04 | 1:040.16–0.02 | 1:140.03–0.01 | 0:410.02–0.04 | 0:310.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Regehr–Sekera | 5:150.02–0.22 | 2:240.04–0.12 | 0:460.01–0.00 | 4:430.04–0.20 | 2:190.01–0.06 | 0:420.01–0.00 | 1:350.01–0.02 | 1:020.23–0.06 | 0:430.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Weber–McNabb | 0:540.09–0.00 | 2:120.09–0.05 | 1:480.00–0.13 | 1:460.02–0.00 | 1:030.00–0.00 | 0:510.00–0.01 | 4:150.19–0.13 | 1:350.02–0.06 | 2:080.00–0.00 | 0:460.05–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFOTTFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Erik KarlssonOTT | 28 | 27:01 | 0:58 | 2:10 | 6 | 2 |
 Jared CowenOTT | 31 | 26:04 | 0:50 | 1:36 | 7 | 4 |
 Chris PhillipsOTT | 29 | 23:28 | 0:49 | 1:23 | 5 | 3 |
 Derek RoyBUF | 24 | 22:23 | 0:56 | 2:43 | 2 | 4 |
 Christian EhrhoffBUF | 25 | 21:17 | 0:51 | 1:35 | 1 | 3 |
 Jason SpezzaOTT | 26 | 20:38 | 0:48 | 1:18 | 9 | 0 |
 Jordan LeopoldBUF | 26 | 19:46 | 0:46 | 1:35 | 2 | 3 |
 Jason PominvilleBUF | 23 | 19:26 | 0:51 | 1:41 | 1 | 4 |
 Drew StaffordBUF | 25 | 19:21 | 0:46 | 1:20 | 2 | 5 |
 Peter ReginOTT | 23 | 18:56 | 0:49 | 1:30 | 3 | 0 |
 Thomas VanekBUF | 21 | 18:42 | 0:53 | 2:21 | 2 | 3 |
 Colin GreeningOTT | 24 | 18:42 | 0:47 | 1:28 | 7 | 0 |
 Robyn RegehrBUF | 26 | 18:36 | 0:43 | 1:36 | 0 | 7 |
 Nick FolignoOTT | 25 | 18:30 | 0:44 | 1:20 | 3 | 0 |
 Andrej SekeraBUF | 27 | 18:27 | 0:41 | 1:22 | 0 | 8 |
 Brian LeeOTT | 22 | 18:07 | 0:49 | 1:40 | 2 | 2 |
 Daniel AlfredssonOTT | 23 | 17:46 | 0:46 | 1:13 | 7 | 0 |
 Tyler EnnisBUF | 22 | 17:35 | 0:48 | 2:03 | 3 | 3 |
 Brayden McNabbBUF | 21 | 16:59 | 0:49 | 1:37 | 2 | 3 |
 Paul GaustadBUF | 20 | 16:50 | 0:51 | 1:38 | 2 | 7 |
 Mike WeberBUF | 23 | 16:31 | 0:43 | 1:30 | 3 | 4 |
 Zack SmithOTT | 23 | 14:58 | 0:39 | 1:17 | 1 | 3 |
 Ville LeinoBUF | 16 | 14:49 | 0:56 | 2:28 | 3 | 3 |
 Matt CarknerOTT | 19 | 14:41 | 0:46 | 1:32 | 1 | 1 |
 Erik CondraOTT | 20 | 13:03 | 0:39 | 1:08 | 2 | 3 |
 Zack KassianBUF | 14 | 12:52 | 0:55 | 1:20 | 2 | 2 |
 Chris NeilOTT | 16 | 12:25 | 0:47 | 1:20 | 3 | 1 |
 David RundbladOTT | 16 | 12:17 | 0:46 | 1:32 | 4 | 0 |
 Paul SzczechuraBUF | 18 | 12:16 | 0:41 | 1:07 | 1 | 3 |
 Kaspars DaugavinsOTT | 18 | 12:08 | 0:40 | 1:32 | 0 | 3 |
 Jesse WinchesterOTT | 17 | 11:39 | 0:41 | 1:32 | 0 | 3 |
 Luke AdamBUF | 15 | 11:13 | 0:45 | 1:17 | 3 | 0 |
 Milan MichalekOTT | 13 | 10:05 | 0:47 | 1:43 | 2 | 1 |
 Marc-Andre GragnaniBUF | 13 | 9:46 | 0:45 | 1:41 | 4 | 0 |
 Cody McCormickBUF | 11 | 8:11 | 0:45 | 1:06 | 3 | 2 |
 Zenon KonopkaOTT | 11 | 6:38 | 0:36 | 1:15 | 2 | 3 |