Fri, Dec 16, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 014 | 28 | 211 | 433 |
| BUF | 08 | 410 | 111 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:49TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 4:11BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 9:03TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, John-Michael Liles · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 9:22BUFThomas VanekAssists: Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 14:08BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 18:01BUFAndrej SekeraPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Ennis · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 9:57TORNikolay KuleminUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–4
- P3 15:44BUFThomas VanekGWGAssists: Derek Roy · Slap, 0.26 xG3–5
- P3 16:15TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Joey Crabb · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:35BUFMatt Ellis: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:47TORCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:22BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:57TORClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:09TORPhilippe Dupuis: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:15TORTyler Bozak: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:01TORDion Phaneuf: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 17:01TORDion Phaneuf: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Connolly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kulemin – Frattin7:59
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak12:14
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Steckel – Crabb – Dupuis3:52
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Connolly – Armstrong – MacArthur7:27
xG 0.03–0.13 (16%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Franson12:09
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Schenn3:31
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Liles – Gardiner2:47
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Stafford – Ennis11:05
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gaustad – McCormick – Ellis4:00
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Adam – Kassian8:51
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Szczechura9:28
xG 0.43–0.78 (36%)attempts 8–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – McNabb6:48
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gragnani – Weber7:07
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Regehr – Sekera12:03
xG 0.44–0.53 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).