Fri, Dec 16, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
36%
10%
9%
46%
BUF winsTOR wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TOR's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Lupul–Kessel–Bozak | Grabovski–Kulemin–Frattin | Connolly–Armstrong–MacArthur | Steckel–Crabb–Dupuis | Connolly–MacArthur–Kessel | Crabb–Grabovski–Kulemin | Liles–Franson | Schenn–Gardiner | Phaneuf–Gunnarsson | Gunnarsson–Schenn | Franson–Gunnarsson | Liles–Gardiner | Liles–Schenn | Franson–Gardiner | Gunnarsson–Gardiner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy–Stafford–Ennis | 2:580.14–0.16 | 2:560.04–0.02 | 0:580.03–0.00 | 2:070.04–0.02 | 2:010.13–0.09 | 1:470.03–0.00 | 1:550.00–0.05 | 2:210.06–0.02 | 0:350.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Pominville–Vanek–Szczechura | 4:540.26–0.27 | 2:280.04–0.22 | 0:310.00–0.26 | 1:150.00–0.00 | 4:250.25–0.18 | 1:060.10–0.03 | 0:310.00–0.26 | 0:380.00–0.15 | 0:430.00–0.16 | ||||||
| Gaustad–Adam–Kassian | 0:540.00–0.00 | 3:340.03–0.20 | 1:130.00–0.00 | 4:180.00–0.06 | 1:060.10–0.14 | 1:430.03–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.06 | |||||||
| Gaustad–McCormick–Ellis | 0:360.00–0.11 | 1:220.00–0.01 | 1:200.00–0.00 | 1:340.00–0.11 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 1:040.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.01 | ||||||||
| McCormick–Ellis–Szczechura | 0:400.01–0.00 | 0:390.01–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Roy–McCormick–Ennis | 0:560.00–0.00 | 1:010.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Gaustad–Ellis–Kassian | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Leopold–Ehrhoff | 1:500.02–0.16 | 4:260.00–0.42 | 3:360.00–0.03 | 0:360.00–0.03 | 0:510.00–0.06 | 5:190.02–0.12 | 2:000.00–0.22 | 2:270.00–0.04 | 1:000.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.15 | 0:580.00–0.02 | ||||
| Regehr–Sekera | 7:580.23–0.42 | 1:040.00–0.09 | 0:500.03–0.01 | 2:590.00–0.27 | 4:340.39–0.17 | 1:380.03–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.07 | 0:490.00–0.02 | 0:380.02–0.00 | ||||||
| Gragnani–Weber | 1:230.10–0.09 | 0:540.03–0.00 | 1:180.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.26 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 1:250.00–0.09 | 2:280.12–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.26 | 1:010.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | ||||
| Weber–McNabb | 1:350.04–0.00 | 2:260.02–0.00 | 2:520.04–0.00 | 1:040.07–0.00 | 1:350.02–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Ehrhoff–Gragnani | 0:330.04–0.00 | 0:560.09–0.00 | 1:000.13–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Regehr–Weber | 0:370.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Leopold–Weber | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.06 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTORFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 John-Michael LilesTOR | 31 | 25:15 | 0:49 | 2:19 | 5 | 6 |
 Christian EhrhoffBUF | 25 | 24:36 | 0:59 | 2:28 | 1 | 5 |
 Carl GunnarssonTOR | 31 | 22:43 | 0:44 | 1:18 | 3 | 6 |
 Jake GardinerTOR | 29 | 22:02 | 0:46 | 1:43 | 2 | 3 |
 Tyler BozakTOR | 24 | 21:49 | 0:55 | 1:41 | 3 | 1 |
 Phil KesselTOR | 21 | 20:54 | 1:00 | 2:09 | 4 | 1 |
 Paul GaustadBUF | 28 | 20:32 | 0:44 | 1:38 | 5 | 6 |
 Jordan LeopoldBUF | 25 | 20:20 | 0:49 | 1:47 | 4 | 5 |
 Derek RoyBUF | 26 | 20:17 | 0:47 | 1:18 | 4 | 3 |
 Drew StaffordBUF | 27 | 20:13 | 0:45 | 1:29 | 7 | 5 |
 Mike WeberBUF | 22 | 19:21 | 0:53 | 1:38 | 4 | 1 |
 Thomas VanekBUF | 26 | 19:16 | 0:44 | 1:24 | 7 | 3 |
 Tyler EnnisBUF | 23 | 18:51 | 0:49 | 1:33 | 4 | 3 |
 Joffrey LupulTOR | 18 | 18:38 | 1:02 | 1:41 | 5 | 2 |
 Jason PominvilleBUF | 28 | 18:03 | 0:39 | 1:13 | 7 | 5 |
 Cody FransonTOR | 27 | 17:41 | 0:39 | 1:33 | 4 | 6 |
 Luke SchennTOR | 27 | 17:12 | 0:38 | 1:43 | 2 | 4 |
 Andrej SekeraBUF | 22 | 16:52 | 0:46 | 1:15 | 3 | 5 |
 Robyn RegehrBUF | 20 | 16:45 | 0:50 | 1:36 | 2 | 3 |
 Tim ConnollyTOR | 24 | 16:33 | 0:41 | 1:16 | 4 | 3 |
 Nikolay KuleminTOR | 20 | 15:23 | 0:46 | 1:53 | 2 | 3 |
 Zack KassianBUF | 20 | 15:22 | 0:46 | 1:09 | 2 | 1 |
 Mikhail GrabovskiTOR | 19 | 15:16 | 0:48 | 1:16 | 1 | 2 |
 Dion PhaneufTOR | 19 | 15:01 | 0:47 | 1:52 | 5 | 4 |
 Marc-Andre GragnaniBUF | 16 | 14:16 | 0:54 | 2:31 | 1 | 0 |
 Luke AdamBUF | 18 | 13:34 | 0:45 | 1:07 | 3 | 1 |
 Paul SzczechuraBUF | 22 | 13:26 | 0:37 | 1:09 | 3 | 2 |
 Clarke MacArthurTOR | 18 | 13:19 | 0:44 | 1:10 | 4 | 2 |
 Colby ArmstrongTOR | 17 | 11:56 | 0:42 | 1:22 | 3 | 2 |
 Matt FrattinTOR | 13 | 11:41 | 0:54 | 1:31 | 1 | 2 |
 Joey CrabbTOR | 16 | 10:03 | 0:38 | 1:05 | 1 | 5 |
 Matt EllisBUF | 15 | 9:24 | 0:38 | 1:06 | 3 | 3 |
 David SteckelTOR | 15 | 8:35 | 0:34 | 1:03 | 1 | 7 |
 Cody McCormickBUF | 11 | 8:23 | 0:46 | 1:06 | 3 | 1 |
 Brayden McNabbBUF | 8 | 6:48 | 0:51 | 1:14 | 3 | 0 |
 Philippe DupuisTOR | 12 | 6:40 | 0:33 | 1:08 | 1 | 5 |