Sat, Dec 31, 2011·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 17 | 111 | 08 | 226 |
| TBL | 113 | 110 | 39 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:12CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Drayson Bowman, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:29CARJay HarrisonPPAssists: Eric Staal, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 8:17TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steve Downie · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 0:43TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Ryan Malone · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 1:05TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Ryan Malone, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 6:51TBLSteve DownieAssists: Ryan Malone, Tom Pyatt · Snap, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 16:00TBLTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:09TBLBrett Clark: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:08TBLMartin St. Louis: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:04CARJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:57CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:52CARTim Brent: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:52TBLDominic Moore: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:52CARCam Ward: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:52TBLVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:31TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:18CARAlexei Ponikarovsky: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Dalpe10:22
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- LaRose – Tlusty – Sutter3:33
xG 0.02–0.03 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brent – Stewart – Nodl7:01
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Ruutu – Jokinen12:55
xG 0.34–0.42 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Spacek9:41
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Spacek – McBain3:40
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Allen – McBain2:40
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos13:51
xG 0.97–0.21 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Lecavalier – Moore – Wyman9:13
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Hall – Jones – Tyrell6:08
xG 0.12–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Malone – Pyatt – Purcell8:32
xG 0.41–0.47 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Gilroy15:46
xG 0.71–0.27 (72%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Gervais10:56
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Kubina – Bergeron3:41
xG 0.16–0.26 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).