Sat, Dec 31, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 014 | 215 | 014 | 03 | 3 | 346 |
| BUF | 19 | 111 | 06 | 02 | 2 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06BUFBrad BoyesPPAssists: Jordan Leopold, Marc-Andre Gragnani · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 1:55OTTMatt CarknerAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:27BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Jordan Leopold, Brayden McNabb · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 6:15OTTChris NeilAssists: Erik Condra, Zack Smith · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Thomas Vanek stopped
- 2. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 3. BUF Brad Boyes scored
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza scored
- 5. BUF Jason Pominville scored
- 6. OTT Daniel Alfredsson scored
- 7. BUF Derek Roy stopped
- 8. OTT Erik Condra stopped
- 9. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
- 10. OTT Bobby Butler scored
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:02OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:44OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:55OTTZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:34BUFBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:56OTTJared Cowen: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:30BUFMarc-Andre Gragnani: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:26BUFRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:54OTTJason Spezza: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:59BUFBrad Boyes: Holding2 min
- P3 1:43OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:43OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:43BUFTJ Brennan: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:43BUFJason Pominville: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:04OTTBrian Lee: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:13BUFNathan Gerbe: Hooking2 min
- OT 5:00OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- OT 5:00BUFRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min
- OT 5:00OTTZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Spezza – Michalek2:47
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Foligno2:49
xG 0.04–0.12 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Condra – Turris10:39
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening4:35
xG 0.01–0.21 (5%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson18:20
xG 1.26–0.41 (75%)attempts 25–7goals 1–0
- Lee – Cowen4:02
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Phillips – Carkner4:00
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Stafford – Gerbe9:30
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – McCormick – Adam5:35
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek10:25
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Ellis – Kaleta7:56
xG 0.18–0.37 (32%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – McNabb13:54
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Gragnani – Brennan6:33
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Regehr – Weber12:51
xG 0.24–0.46 (35%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).