Fri, Jan 6, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 19 | 112 | 233 |
| CAR | 015 | 18 | 312 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:39CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 3:00BUFThomas VanekAssists: Jason Pominville, Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 1:11CAREric StaalAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 6:12BUFJason PominvilleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 8:10CARChad LaRoseGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 18:29CARBrandon SutterENAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P2 2:32BUFMike Weber: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:55CARBryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P2 15:22BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P3 7:50BUFNathan Gerbe: Holding2 min
- P3 7:50CARJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:37BUFBrad Boyes: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:19CARJustin Faulk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:55BUFLuke Adam: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hecht won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Ellis – Kaleta4:58
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek11:25
xG 0.65–0.48 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Boyes – Stafford – Gerbe10:40
xG 0.85–0.89 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – McNabb16:55
xG 1.56–0.56 (74%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Regehr – Leopold11:40
xG 0.88–0.84 (51%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Leopold – Gragnani4:15
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Sutter – Bowman3:34
xG 0.41–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman6:09
xG 0.44–0.51 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Ponikarovsky – Brent – Tlusty7:18
xG 0.45–0.55 (45%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Stewart – Sutter – Nodl3:57
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain13:36
xG 1.21–0.84 (59%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Allen – Gleason4:56
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Allen – Spacek12:33
xG 0.68–0.89 (43%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).