Sun, Jan 15, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 217 | 015 | 412 | 644 |
| TBL | 05 | 08 | 37 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:43PITJames NealPPAssists: Paul Martin, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:38PITRichard ParkUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 0:34PITJames NealPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Steve Sullivan · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 2:00TBLMatt GilroyAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 4:53TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Teddy Purcell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 6:50TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Bruno Gervais · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 7:38PITEvgeni MalkinGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 9:27PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 19:04PITEvgeni MalkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:46TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:24TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:24PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:07TBLPavel Kubina: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:53TBLSteve Downie: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:45TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:01PITDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:11TBLVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:11PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:11TBLVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:11TBLVincent Lecavalier: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:16PITJames Neal: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:16TBLPavel Kubina: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jeffrey won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal11:11
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Asham – Adams – Tangradi3:37
xG 0.41–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Park – Sullivan – Cooke6:48
xG 0.43–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Kennedy – Jeffrey9:19
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Niskanen6:01
xG 0.68–0.06 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Martin – Michalek17:39
xG 0.94–0.37 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Lovejoy7:13
xG 0.36–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Malone – Purcell7:06
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Moore – Thompson – Tyrell6:22
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos3:33
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Pyatt – Stamkos3:18
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Brewer – Gervais2:02
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Clark – Gilroy15:53
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
- Gervais – Mikkelson13:37
xG 0.31–0.66 (32%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).