Tue, Jan 17, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 19 | 16 | 321 |
| TOR | 210 | 021 | 08 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:51TORMatthew LombardiAssists: Tim Connolly, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 15:35TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 19:52OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Milan Michalek, Kyle Turris · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 16:46OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Kaspars Daugavins, Filip Kuba · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 1:24OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:28OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:28TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:41OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P2 6:50OTTNick Foligno: Clipping2 min
- P2 13:16TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:16TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:16OTTNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Spezza – Foligno – Butler3:55
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Daugavins – Butler2:37
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Greening – Condra – Smith3:10
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening3:55
xG 0.02–0.08 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phillips – Carkner12:26
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Kuba – Karlsson22:14
xG 0.78–1.23 (39%)attempts 28–27goals 2–0
- Gonchar – Cowen15:21
xG 0.26–0.89 (23%)attempts 9–23goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:37
xG 0.75–0.15 (83%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak13:35
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
- Connolly – Lombardi – Crabb10:45
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Steckel – Rosehill – Brown3:23
xG 0.04–0.06 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Gardiner12:47
xG 0.77–0.12 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner5:16
xG 0.27–0.02 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Aulie11:00
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).