Tue, Feb 14, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 117 | 013 | 012 | 142 |
| CGY | 212 | 17 | 215 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Olli Jokinen, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:13CGYOlli JokinenGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 16:42TORTyler BozakAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 9:15CGYPaul ByronUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 15:09CGYBlake ComeauAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 17:44CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:47TORMike Komisarek: Interference2 min
- P2 9:15TORDion Phaneuf: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:21CGYLance Bouma: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:44CGYMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:34CGYChris Butler: Holding2 min
- P3 18:23TORClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Cammalleri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak13:31
xG 2.32–1.20 (66%)attempts 25–11goals 1–2
- Connolly – MacArthur – Grabovski12:41
xG 1.05–0.71 (60%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Lombardi – Crabb – Kulemin10:37
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Steckel – Boyce – Brown7:59
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Schenn8:00
xG 0.80–0.16 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Phaneuf5:31
xG 0.78–0.20 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Liles – Franson15:42
xG 0.94–0.50 (65%)attempts 19–9goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKolanos – Bouma – Horak7:45
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Cammalleri – Comeau11:25
xG 0.96–1.01 (49%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Jackman – Stajan – Byron9:08
xG 0.33–0.58 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay13:12
xG 1.06–2.34 (31%)attempts 12–23goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie12:55
xG 0.97–0.64 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler20:12
xG 1.46–2.18 (40%)attempts 16–26goals 1–1
- Hannan – Giordano14:27
xG 0.76–1.49 (34%)attempts 15–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).