Sat, Mar 3, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 28 | 212 | 18 | 528 |
| COL | 014 | 09 | 113 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55PITArron AshamAssists: Craig Adams, Brooks Orpik · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:17PITDeryk EngellandGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Steve Sullivan · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 5:30PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: James Neal, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 9:03PITRichard ParkAssists: Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–0
- P3 8:58COLMatt HunwickAssists: Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–1
- P3 18:34PITSteve SullivanENAssists: Paul Martin, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:12PITPaul Martin: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:12COLSteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:24PITArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:24COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:41COLRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:57PITRichard Park: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:28COLJean-Sebastien Giguere: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:41PITArron Asham: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:24COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 1:20PITZbynek Michalek: Interference2 min
- P3 10:07PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:07COLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:07PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Olver won the faceoff against Vitale
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Dupuis – Staal5:32
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Park – Vitale – Tangradi2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Park – Cooke – Vitale4:15
xG 0.02–0.09 (22%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal10:22
xG 0.61–0.96 (39%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Lovejoy7:11
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Niskanen2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Engelland10:58
xG 0.74–0.77 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDownie – O'Reilly – Landeskog8:05
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Duchene5:32
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Jones – McGinn – Olver2:58
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- McClement – McLeod – McGinn3:56
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Elliott7:07
xG 0.65–0.18 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Johnson8:44
xG 0.67–0.24 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–2
- Hunwick – Johnson3:36
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).