Wed, Mar 7, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 18 | 07 | 00 | 224 |
| BUF | 08 | 217 | 015 | 12 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:47CARJaroslav SpacekAssists: Jamie McBain, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 0:22BUFTyler MyersAssists: Patrick Kaleta, Jordan Leopold · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:02BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–2
- P2 5:11CARChad LaRoseAssists: Jeff Skinner · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 0:56BUFJason PominvillePPGWGAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:18BUFTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:30CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:23CARBryan Allen: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:33CARJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:53CARChad LaRose: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:32CARJussi Jokinen: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:08BUFDrew Stafford: Holding2 min
- P3 6:29BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:30CARJussi Jokinen: Holding2 min
- P3 19:05CARBryan Allen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Leino won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – LaRose – Skinner10:36
xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter7:34
xG 0.22–0.17 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Stewart – Tlusty6:13
xG 0.03–0.27 (11%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpacek – McBain9:24
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Allen – Gleason11:25
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk13:00
xG 0.27–0.81 (25%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKaleta – Gerbe – Leino9:06
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Roy – Pominville – Vanek11:00
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Stafford – Hodgson – Ennis11:31
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Boyes – Ellis – Tropp4:05
xG 0.02–0.17 (13%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Myers11:44
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer11:48
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers2:50
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).