Sat, Mar 17, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 18 | 26 | 318 |
| OTT | 07 | 014 | 19 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:20TORTim ConnollyUnassisted · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–0
- P3 0:53TORPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 12:02TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Jake Gardiner · Slap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 18:51OTTColin GreeningAssists: Filip Kuba, Jim O'Brien · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–1
Penalties (23)
- P1 11:22OTTSergei Gonchar: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:22TORClarke MacArthur: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:03TORCarter Ashton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:23OTTNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:23TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:23TORMikhail Grabovski: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:23OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:23TORMikhail Grabovski: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 13:23TORMikhail Grabovski: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 13:23OTTChris Neil: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:45TORTim Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:45OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:27OTTJim O'Brien: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:24TORDavid Steckel: Holding2 min
- P3 2:23TORMike Komisarek: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:23OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:34TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:56OTTNick Foligno: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:07OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:07OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:31TORMike Komisarek: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:31OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:31TORJay Rosehill: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Lombardi – Armstrong – Rosehill3:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (22%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Kessel – Bozak2:01
xG 0.05–0.23 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Kessel – Bozak10:17
xG 0.32–0.51 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Grabovski – Frattin – Ashton7:18
xG 0.06–0.44 (12%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Liles – Phaneuf4:05
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gardiner10:53
xG 0.34–0.50 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Liles – Komisarek11:39
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Klinkhammer – Turris10:40
xG 0.76–0.10 (89%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – O'Brien6:18
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler3:01
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Condra – Smith – Butler5:41
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Cowen8:38
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Phillips – Gilroy11:46
xG 0.51–0.18 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson16:00
xG 0.59–0.62 (49%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).