Sat, Mar 24, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
New York Islanders 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 014 | 215 | 18 | 337 |
| TBL | 19 | 16 | 211 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:49TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:46TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:15NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Matt Moulson, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 19:24NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Josh Bailey, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 0:43NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Mark Streit, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 9:08TBLTom PyattAssists: Ryan Malone, Brett Connolly · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 12:10TBLTim WallaceGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Pierre-Cedric Labrie · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:36NYIMarty Reasoner: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:48TBLEric Brewer: Holding2 min
- P2 4:02NYIPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:01TBLBrandon Segal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:34TBLEric Brewer: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:33NYIKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Pyatt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:17
xG 1.14–0.55 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Reasoner – Martin – Niederreiter9:40
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Grabner – Ullstrom – Cizikas8:28
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:54
xG 0.27–0.32 (45%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Eaton10:42
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Streit – Reese17:46
xG 0.81–0.64 (56%)attempts 18–14goals 1–2
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:21
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos12:52
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Malone – Pyatt – Connolly4:12
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Wallace – Connolly2:40
xG 0.03–0.08 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Wyman – Wallace – Smith2:44
xG 0.04–0.27 (12%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Aulie4:44
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Clark – Brewer5:14
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 2–1
- Clark – Lee6:05
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).