Sat, Jan 19, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 117 | 26 | 07 | 330 |
| TBL | 28 | 113 | 313 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24TBLEric BrewerAssists: Matt Carle, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:25WSHJoel WardPPAssists: Tom Poti, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 9:09TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Keith Aulie · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 1:59WSHJoel WardAssists: Jason Chimera, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 5:11TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–3
- P2 18:15WSHWojtek WolskiAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 4:57TBLMartin St. LouisPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 13:24TBLCory ConacherAssists: Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 16:42TBLEric BrewerPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.04 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:28TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min
- P1 2:51TBLBrian Lee: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:37TBLBrian Lee: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:01WSHTroy Brouwer: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:06WSHWojtek Wolski: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:59WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:28WSHMike Ribeiro: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:26TBLSami Salo: Holding2 min
- P2 17:26WSHAlex Ovechkin: Embellishment2 min
- P3 3:18WSHMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:22WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:04TBLTom Pyatt: Holding2 min
- P3 15:42WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Wolski – Brouwer9:41
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Ovechkin – Backstrom3:51
xG 0.01–0.01 (45%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle6:44
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson8:34
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Green6:00
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Poti – Green5:23
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Poti – Schultz2:46
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Malone – Stamkos9:33
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Pouliot – Purcell3:32
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Purcell – Conacher2:51
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Crombeen – Thompson6:52
xG 0.13–0.39 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLee – Aulie6:21
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman11:29
xG 0.33–0.29 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Brewer – Carle9:07
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).