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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 19, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa

Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.

TBL winsWSH wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:28Malone: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Salo, St. Louis, Malone, Stamkos, Hedman · WSH Hamrlik, Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom, Johansson

  3. P1 0:51Shot by Ovechkin, saved by Lindback4v5
  4. P1 2:22Shot by Ovechkin, saved by Lindback4v5
  5. P1 2:30Shot by Ward, saved by Lindback
  6. P1 2:51Lee: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Lecavalier, Malone, Lee, Purcell, Aulie · WSH Ribeiro, Hendricks, Wolski, Alzner, Carlson

  7. P1 3:46Shot by Ovechkin, saved by Lindback4v5
  8. P1 4:31Shot by Green, saved by Lindback4v5
  9. P1 5:31Shot by Brouwer, saved by Lindback
  10. P1 5:38Shot by Schultz, saved by Lindback
  11. P1 6:24Goal by Brewer (Carle, St. Louis)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Brewer, St. Louis, Carle, Pouliot, Stamkos · WSH Poti, Schultz, Brouwer, Perreault, Johansson

  12. P1 6:37Lee: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Crombeen, Thompson, Lee, Pyatt, Aulie · WSH Hendricks, Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom, Hillen

  13. P1 8:21Shot by Ribeiro, saved by Lindback4v5
  14. P1 8:23Shot by Poti, saved by Lindback4v5
  15. P1 8:25Goal by Ward (Poti, Ribeiro)4v5+20 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Salo, Thompson, Pyatt, Hedman · WSH Poti, Ribeiro, Ward, Wolski, Carlson

  16. P1 9:09Goal by Lecavalier (Aulie)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Lecavalier, Bergeron, Pouliot, Purcell, Aulie · WSH Hamrlik, Chimera, Hendricks, Beagle, Hillen

  17. P1 9:26Shot by Malone, saved by Holtby
  18. P1 9:27Shot by Malone, saved by Holtby
  19. P1 10:15Shot by Ward, saved by Lindback
  20. P1 10:18Shot by Ovechkin, saved by Lindback
  21. P1 10:38Shot by Hall, saved by Holtby
  22. P1 10:46Shot by Bergeron, saved by Holtby
  23. P1 11:01Shot by Ward, saved by Lindback
  24. P1 11:08Shot by Purcell, saved by Holtby
  25. P1 12:56Shot by Beagle, saved by Lindback
  26. P1 13:37Shot by Ribeiro, saved by Lindback
  27. P1 14:01Brouwer: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Brewer, Lecavalier, Carle, Pyatt, Purcell · WSH Hamrlik, Ribeiro, Wolski, Green, Brouwer

  28. P1 17:11Shot by Green, saved by Lindback
  29. P1 17:49Shot by Backstrom, saved by Lindback
  30. P1 19:03Shot by Purcell, saved by Holtby
  31. P1 0:00Period end
  32. P2 0:00Period start
  33. P2 1:59Goal by Ward (Chimera, Carlson)5v6+21 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Lecavalier, Malone, Lee, Purcell, Aulie · WSH Chimera, Ward, Ovechkin, Schultz, Beagle, Carlson

  34. P2 3:00Shot by St. Louis, saved by Holtby
  35. P2 3:36Shot by Carlson, saved by Lindback
  36. P2 4:06Wolski: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Salo, St. Louis, Malone, Stamkos, Hedman · WSH Ribeiro, Wolski, Green, Brouwer, Hillen

  37. P2 4:31Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Holtby5v4
  38. P2 5:00Shot by Bergeron, saved by Holtby5v4
  39. P2 5:08Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Holtby5v4
  40. P2 5:11Goal by St. Louis (Lecavalier, Conacher)5v4+19 pts WP

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Lecavalier, Bergeron, Carle, Conacher · WSH Hendricks, Green, Brouwer, Carlson

  41. P2 5:56Shot by Stamkos, saved by Holtby
  42. P2 6:48Shot by Chimera, saved by Lindback
  43. P2 6:59Chimera: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Brewer, Lecavalier, Carle, Purcell, Conacher · WSH Hamrlik, Chimera, Ward, Schultz, Beagle

  44. P2 8:17Shot by Carle, saved by Holtby5v4
  45. P2 8:56Shot by St. Louis, saved by Holtby5v4
  46. P2 10:21Shot by Aulie, saved by Holtby
  47. P2 14:16Shot by Thompson, saved by Holtby
  48. P2 14:24Shot by Purcell, saved by Holtby
  49. P2 14:28Ribeiro: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Lecavalier, Pouliot, Lee, Purcell, Aulie · WSH Poti, Ribeiro, Wolski, Green, Brouwer

  50. P2 14:58Shot by Stamkos, saved by Holtby5v4
  51. P2 16:34Shot by Conacher, saved by Holtby
  52. P2 17:03Shot by Backstrom, saved by Lindback
  53. P2 17:26Salo: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Salo, Brewer, Hall, Crombeen, Thompson · WSH Hamrlik, Chimera, Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom

  54. P2 17:26Ovechkin: Embellishment (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TBL Salo, Brewer, Hall, Crombeen, Thompson · WSH Hamrlik, Chimera, Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom

  55. P2 18:13Shot by Ribeiro, saved by Lindback4v4
  56. P2 18:15Goal by Wolski (Ribeiro, Hamrlik)4v4+27 pts WP

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Lee, Stamkos, Hedman · WSH Hamrlik, Ribeiro, Wolski, Carlson

  57. P2 0:00Period end
  58. P3 0:00Period start
  59. P3 1:08Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Holtby
  60. P3 2:01Shot by Stamkos, saved by Holtby
  61. P3 2:46Shot by Salo, saved by Holtby
  62. P3 3:18Perreault: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hall, Crombeen, Thompson, Lee, Aulie · WSH Hamrlik, Poti, Ward, Perreault, Johansson

  63. P3 4:06Shot by Hendricks, saved by Lindback5v4
  64. P3 4:22Backstrom: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Lecavalier, Bergeron, Carle, Pouliot, Conacher · WSH Hamrlik, Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom

  65. P3 4:37Shot by Stamkos, saved by Holtby5v3
  66. P3 4:57Goal by St. Louis (Stamkos, Purcell)5v3+29 pts WP

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Lecavalier, Malone, Purcell, Stamkos · WSH Ribeiro, Alzner, Carlson

  67. P3 6:53Shot by Backstrom, saved by Lindback
  68. P3 7:04Pyatt: Holding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Pouliot, Lee, Pyatt, Purcell, Aulie · WSH Poti, Ribeiro, Ovechkin, Schultz, Backstrom, Johansson

  69. P3 9:14Shot by Alzner, saved by Lindback
  70. P3 10:26Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Holtby
  71. P3 10:36Shot by Purcell, saved by Holtby
  72. P3 10:39Shot by Crombeen, saved by Holtby
  73. P3 10:50Shot by Crombeen, saved by Holtby
  74. P3 13:24Goal by Conacher (Purcell)+9 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Salo, Pyatt, Purcell, Hedman, Conacher · WSH Poti, Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom, Johansson

  75. P3 14:35Shot by Hall, saved by Holtby
  76. P3 14:24Shot by Brouwer, saved by Lindback
  77. P3 15:42Hendricks: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Bergeron, Thompson, Lee, Pyatt, Conacher · WSH Ward, Hendricks, Alzner, Beagle, Carlson

  78. P3 16:16Shot by Carlson, saved by Lindback5v4
  79. P3 16:35Shot by St. Louis, saved by Holtby5v4
  80. P3 16:42Goal by Brewer (Purcell, Stamkos)5v40 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Brewer, St. Louis, Malone, Purcell, Stamkos · WSH Poti, Chimera, Backstrom, Carlson

  81. P3 16:57Shot by Johansson, saved by Lindback
  82. P3 18:47Shot by Hendricks, saved by Lindback
  83. P3 0:00Period end
  84. P3 0:00Final