Tue, Jan 29, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 16 | 011 | 111 | 228 |
| TBL | 211 | 210 | 112 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:09TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:24FLAPeter MuellerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 12:49TBLCory ConacherAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 3:18TBLTom PyattGWGAssists: Dana Tyrell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 15:39TBLDana TyrellAssists: Tom Pyatt, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 14:13TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Cory Conacher · Slap, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 14:31FLATomas FleischmannSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 9:40TBLB.J. Crombeen: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:40TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:40FLAKeaton Ellerby: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 9:40FLAKeaton Ellerby: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:40FLAKeaton Ellerby: Instigator2 min
- P1 9:40FLAKeaton Ellerby: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:29FLAMike Weaver: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:07TBLRyan Malone: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:38TBLCory Conacher: Holding2 min
- P2 16:34TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:05TBLTom Pyatt: Holding2 min
- P3 10:34FLAScottie Upshall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:43FLAFilip Kuba: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:13FLATomas Kopecky: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:13FLATomas Kopecky: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Matthias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMueller – Shore – Huberdeau7:06
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Kovalev – Skille – Matthias7:36
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Parros – Smithson – Upshall3:32
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Fleischmann – Versteeg7:35
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov5:14
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Jovanovski – Ellerby2:54
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ellerby2:22
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Pyatt – Tyrell5:15
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Hall – Crombeen – Thompson5:30
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos12:25
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Conacher7:24
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman11:25
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Lee – Aulie11:48
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Brewer – Hedman3:16
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).