Sun, Feb 10, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 110 | 04 | 120 |
| NYR | 215 | 18 | 29 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Rick Nash, Dan Girardi · Deflected, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 15:13NYRRyan CallahanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 9:58NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 14:42TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 12:22NYRArron AshamAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 19:51NYRRick NashAssists: Carl Hagelin, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:16TBLB.J. Crombeen: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:42TBLNate Thompson: Holding2 min
- P2 4:10NYRTaylor Pyatt: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:04TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:49NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Purcell – Killorn7:04
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Hall – Crombeen – Labrie5:22
xG 0.03–0.06 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Pyatt – Killorn3:04
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pouliot – Pyatt3:42
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Aulie2:00
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lee – Aulie9:05
xG 0.03–0.21 (14%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Brewer – Carle15:10
xG 0.43–0.79 (35%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Hagelin – Stepan9:54
xG 0.83–0.11 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Asham – Halpern – Powe6:39
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Nash – Callahan – Stepan2:35
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Richards – Pyatt – Gaborik11:23
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi10:00
xG 0.89–0.26 (78%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Del Zotto4:37
xG 0.46–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Stralman – McDonagh9:41
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).