Tue, Mar 5, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 210 | 211 | 525 |
| NJD | 010 | 04 | 213 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:04TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Cory Conacher, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 5:53TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Alex Killorn, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 13:13TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Snap, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 8:36TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Cory Conacher, Sami Salo · Snap, 0.13 xG4–0
- P3 13:44NJDAdam HenriqueSHAssists: Ryan Carter · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 15:15NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–2
- P3 18:40TBLB.J. CrombeenENAssists: Adam Hall, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:32TBLSami Salo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:34NJDKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:34TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:41NJDAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
- P2 14:23NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:23TBLKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:17NJDCam Janssen: Charging2 min
- P2 19:17TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:23NJDStephen Gionta: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:00TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Conacher – Palat6:05
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Killorn11:24
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Hall – Crombeen – Labrie5:28
xG 0.04–0.00 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Purcell – Stamkos – Palat2:53
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLee – Aulie12:54
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Salo – Hedman14:43
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- Carle – Lee2:37
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Clarkson – Henrique7:16
xG 0.26–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Henrique2:42
xG 0.18–0.00 (97%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Loktionov4:13
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Elias – Kovalchuk – Loktionov5:44
xG 0.04–0.02 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Zidlicky16:08
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Larsson3:12
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson11:41
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).