Sat, Mar 9, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 19 | 313 | 429 |
| TBL | 010 | 311 | 02 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:30TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 7:38MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 8:15TBLSami SaloAssists: B.J. Crombeen, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 12:20TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 3:49MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Michael Ryder, Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 7:33MTLAlexei EmelinAssists: Brian Gionta, Michael Ryder · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 12:03MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:45TBLB.J. Crombeen: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:25TBLMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:25MTLDavid Desharnais: Diving2 min
- P2 12:02MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:56MTLLars Eller: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 14:19TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:49TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Ryder – Plekanec11:06
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher13:08
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk10:55
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Moen – Armstrong – Dumont7:21
xG 0.23–0.24 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban17:40
xG 0.41–0.21 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin14:25
xG 0.66–0.51 (57%)attempts 18–18goals 2–1
- Bouillon – Pateryn8:59
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Pyatt – Purcell2:20
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson7:31
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Labrie – Palat4:32
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Killorn4:53
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLee – Aulie4:57
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Hedman4:27
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman15:49
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).