Fri, Apr 5, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 014 | 111 | 237 |
| BUF | 19 | 011 | 310 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:21BUFLuke AdamAssists: Adam Pardy, Mike Weber · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:29OTTMarc MethotAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 1:41OTTEric GrybaAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 3:15BUFSteve OttAssists: Mark Pysyk, Adam Pardy · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 14:37BUFBrian FlynnGWGAssists: Jochen Hecht, Mike Weber · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 14:49BUFJochen HechtAssists: Tyler Myers, Kevin Porter · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:51OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P1 13:20BUFMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:48BUFPatrick Kaleta: Charging2 min
- P2 12:09BUFTyler Ennis: Elbowing2 min
- P3 5:06BUFDrew Stafford: Interference2 min
- P3 12:22OTTMarc Methot: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Alfredsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Conacher – Zibanejad6:49
xG 0.47–0.18 (73%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith9:45
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Regin – Silfverberg – Conacher2:32
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Regin – Kassian – Condra4:52
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Lundin12:34
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Gryba – Wiercioch8:30
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Phillips2:08
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Gerbe – Ennis3:01
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ott – Gerbe – Hodgson7:51
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno8:14
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Hecht – Kaleta – Scott7:16
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Myers16:59
xG 0.84–0.46 (64%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Pardy – Pysyk10:27
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Sekera – Weber13:32
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).