Tue, Apr 9, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 09 | 111 | 233 |
| TBL | 08 | 212 | 14 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:29OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Kyle Turris, Chris Phillips · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 2:35TBLPierre-Cedric LabrieAssists: Nate Thompson, B.J. Crombeen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:28TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–2
- P3 0:21OTTGuillaume LatendressePPAssists: Kyle Turris, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 14:56TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:07OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:29TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:50OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:50OTTPeter Regin: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 7:42OTTAndre Benoit: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:56OTTSergei Gonchar: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:59TBLMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:54TBLBen Bishop: Delaying game2 min
- P2 12:55OTTChris Phillips: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:21TBLB.J. Crombeen: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 14:40OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:32TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:32OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00TBLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Latendresse – Turris11:46
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Conacher – Zibanejad9:02
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith9:43
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Neil – Conacher – Zibanejad2:18
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Benoit11:02
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Methot – Gryba14:39
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Wiercioch9:08
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCrombeen – Thompson – Labrie7:58
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Purcell – Killorn9:51
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos13:00
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Connolly4:29
xG 0.07–0.37 (15%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Gudas4:25
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Brewer – Carle2:48
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas2:27
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).