Thu, Apr 11, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 215 | 217 | 110 | 542 |
| BUF | 07 | 04 | 14 | 115 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43MTLRene BourqueAssists: Brian Gionta, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 10:27MTLAlex GalchenyukGWGAssists: Michael Ryder · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 4:36MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–0
- P2 17:54MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Michael Ryder · Slap, 0.21 xG4–0
- P3 6:45BUFBrian FlynnSHAssists: Kevin Porter, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 17:19MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.14 xG5–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:47BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:47MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:52BUFAdam Pardy: Holding2 min
- P2 7:59BUFNathan Gerbe: Elbowing2 min
- P2 12:49BUFSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:49MTLFrancis Bouillon: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:05BUFMike Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:08BUFJochen Hecht: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:08MTLBrandon Prust: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:37BUFLuke Adam: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:48BUFTyler Ennis: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:34MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:13BUFJochen Hecht: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:31BUFNathan Gerbe: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 0:00MTLRene Bourque: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Porter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher8:41
xG 1.09–0.02 (98%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque10:05
xG 0.73–0.12 (86%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Ryder – Eller – Galchenyuk8:25
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Halpern – Moen – Prust5:41
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDrewiske – Beaulieu6:30
xG 1.14–0.05 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Markov10:58
xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Gorges2:33
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Hodgson – Ennis3:18
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hecht – Stafford – Gerbe3:39
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Adam5:38
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Vanek – Hodgson – Foligno5:37
xG 0.15–0.71 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Myers13:00
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Sekera – Pardy6:40
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Pardy – Weber3:50
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).