Thu, Apr 11, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 213 | 114 | 314 | 641 |
| TBL | 18 | 17 | 14 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07PITJussi JokinenAssists: Brenden Morrow, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 6:02PITPascal DupuisPPAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–0
- P1 16:00TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Sami Salo · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 1:48PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 5:46TBLBrett ConnollyPPAssists: Richard Panik, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 1:24PITEvgeni MalkinGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 4:45PITJussi JokinenAssists: Douglas Murray, Pascal Dupuis · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 16:40PITTanner GlassPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.46 xG6–2
- P3 19:42TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.31 xG6–3
Penalties (23)
- P1 4:30TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:38PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:00TBLRyan Malone: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:13PITBeau Bennett: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:59PITMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:24TBLMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:16TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:16PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:16TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:16PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:19TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:19PITDouglas Murray: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:19PITDouglas Murray: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:19TBLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:09TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:09PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:09TBLSteven Stamkos: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:02TBLRadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:02TBLKeith Aulie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:00TBLNate Thompson: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:30PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Kunitz – Malkin9:07
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Morrow – Dupuis – Jokinen7:17
xG 0.46–0.24 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Adams – Glass – Bennett6:05
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter8:04
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Niskanen11:12
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Orpik – Letang8:59
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Eaton – Niskanen2:09
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos10:03
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Connolly5:29
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie6:41
xG 0.08–0.15 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Purcell – Killorn9:05
xG 0.19–0.38 (34%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Gudas7:21
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Carle3:36
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Aulie6:39
xG 0.09–0.14 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).