Sat, Apr 27, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 114 | 39 | 532 |
| TBL | 29 | 110 | 012 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00TBLMatt CarleAssists: Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:14TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 16:54FLANick BjugstadAssists: Tyson Strachan, TJ Brennan · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 0:54FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Drew Shore · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 5:47TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Teddy Purcell, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–3
- P3 5:30FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Eric Selleck · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 13:53FLATomas FleischmannGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:11FLAMarcel GocENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:10FLANick Bjugstad: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 16:59TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:59FLAPeter Mueller: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:47FLATomas Fleischmann: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:53FLAAlexander Petrovic: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:29TBLVincent Lecavalier: Interference2 min
- P3 15:46FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:46TBLVincent Lecavalier: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Kopecky – Mueller – Shore8:26
xG 0.48–0.45 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Parros – Selleck – Bjugstad5:13
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Mueller – Bjugstad4:12
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Upshall – Matthias – Howden7:54
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Weaver15:23
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 13–16goals 3–0
- Campbell – Weaver2:47
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Strachan – Brennan11:46
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos15:32
xG 0.96–0.39 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie8:50
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Pouliot7:45
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Killorn – Tyrell10:23
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman14:29
xG 0.88–0.43 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 1–3
- Brewer – Carle18:13
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Roy – Aulie11:28
xG 0.27–0.61 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).