Sat, Oct 12, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 29 | 38 | 526 |
| TBL | 18 | 28 | 12 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:25TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Alex Killorn, Richard Panik · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 2:14PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–1
- P2 5:11TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 7:01PITBrooks OrpikAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 15:42TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Sami Salo, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 0:25PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rob Scuderi, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 10:26PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 16:58TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Richard Panik, Tyler Johnson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 19:41PITMatt NiskanenPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.04 xG5–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:04PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:04TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:27PITChuck Kobasew: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:23PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:11PITPaul Martin: Holding2 min
- P1 16:38TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:34TBLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:34TBLRyan Malone: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:03TBLRichard Panik: Delaying game2 min
- P2 13:48PITOlli Maatta: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:28TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:26PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:03TBLRichard Panik: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby11:09
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 19–4goals 2–0
- Kobasew – Jokinen – Malkin5:59
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Sutter – Jeffrey3:00
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale3:54
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin13:02
xG 0.96–0.15 (87%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Martin – Niskanen3:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Orpik4:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Malone – Stamkos7:58
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Purcell – Johnson – Palat8:45
xG 0.07–0.09 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Thompson – Stamkos2:12
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie3:48
xG 0.03–0.16 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman10:05
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Brewer – Sustr11:54
xG 0.25–0.22 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hedman – Gudas3:22
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).