Mon, Nov 25, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
New York Rangers 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 017 | 010 | 010 | 037 |
| TBL | 210 | 212 | 13 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Eric Brewer · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 3:10TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 3:12TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 16:52TBLTeddy PurcellUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 18:59TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Martin St. Louis, Alex Killorn · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:14TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:14NYRDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:15NYRMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:26TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:42TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 5:51TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:49TBLB.J. Crombeen: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:01NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 11:34NYRAnton Stralman: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:19TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:19TBLVictor Hedman: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Pouliot – Brassard3:42
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:05
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Nash – Hagelin3:26
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett7:19
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Moore11:05
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
- Girardi – McDonagh11:02
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 17–7goals 0–2
- Staal – Stralman15:13
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Crombeen – Thompson – Palat2:35
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat9:48
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Filppula – Brown11:54
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Purcell – Killorn – Kucherov8:42
xG 0.32–0.45 (42%)attempts 6–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Salo – Hedman11:57
xG 0.40–0.36 (52%)attempts 7–14goals 2–0
- Brewer – Barberio10:29
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Carle – Sustr14:21
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).