Sat, Dec 21, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 110 | 08 | 01 | 227 |
| TBL | 119 | 013 | 117 | 11 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35CARJiri TlustyAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 16:12TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:11CARJiri TlustySHAssists: Eric Staal, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 7:56TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 2:16TBLRadko GudasGWGAssists: Nate Thompson · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:06CARRadek Dvorak: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:01CARTuomo Ruutu: Holding2 min
- P1 13:29TBLRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P2 8:48CARBrett Bellemore: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:53CARTim Gleason: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:02TBLRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P3 6:49CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Semin – Gerbe – Staal11:04
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Nash8:27
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman8:38
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner14:02
xG 0.16–0.76 (18%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Faulk2:03
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gleason – Bellemore2:49
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gleason – Harrison4:21
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kucherov – Brown9:57
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn12:00
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat12:47
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Killorn – Panik2:31
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Cote3:49
xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas17:21
xG 0.95–0.42 (69%)attempts 25–18goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman5:58
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).