Thu, Feb 27, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 04 | 03 | 216 |
| NSH | 08 | 213 | 18 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Ondrej Palat · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 9:13TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 12:05NSHMatt CullenPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:16NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Shea Weber · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 13:56NSHPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Mike Fisher, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:43NSHRyan Ellis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:29TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:26NSHCraig Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:46NSHViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:46TBLEric Brewer: Holding2 min
- P2 9:22TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:22NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:31TBLNikita Kucherov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:44TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:09NSHPaul Gaustad: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:59TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat11:39
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Brown6:28
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson9:50
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Purcell – Killorn9:18
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Barberio15:09
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman10:33
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas16:37
xG 0.51–0.74 (41%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fisher – Hornqvist10:56
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Clune – Moser5:28
xG 0.01–0.04 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Smith – Bourque10:19
xG 0.29–0.40 (43%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Nystrom – Stalberg – Wilson9:58
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:24
xG 0.77–0.22 (78%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Jones10:52
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Ellis15:58
xG 0.25–0.60 (29%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).