Sat, Mar 1, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 211 | 17 | 13 | 421 |
| DAL | 08 | 218 | 015 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Eric Brewer, Ondrej Palat · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 12:09TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 14:31TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 15:50DALAntoine RousselAssists: Kevin Connauton, Vernon Fiddler · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 18:11DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Antoine Roussel, Ryan Garbutt · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 7:12TBLSami SaloAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:22DALAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:22DALAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:14TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:14DALRyan Garbutt: Diving2 min
- P2 19:38TBLRyan Malone: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:39TBLTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:14TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Purcell – Killorn9:53
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Malone – Thompson – Brown3:18
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Brown5:27
xG 0.05–0.32 (13%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat10:21
xG 0.27–1.29 (17%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Gudas2:40
xG 0.29–0.03 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kostka – Hedman2:23
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Brewer – Barberio10:41
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin13:45
xG 1.39–0.33 (81%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt10:12
xG 1.09–0.42 (72%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Cole – Chiasson – Eakin7:06
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Cole – Peverley – Eakin4:12
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski15:48
xG 1.92–0.28 (87%)attempts 25–10goals 1–1
- Gonchar – Rome7:01
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Rome – Connauton3:53
xG 0.04–0.02 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).