Thu, Mar 6, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
56%
8%
9%
27%
TBL winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Stewart–Hodgson–Foligno | Stafford–Leino–Ennis | Mitchell–D'Agostini–Flynn | Ellis–Mitchell–Flynn | D'Agostini–Flynn–Girgensons | Ellis–Scott–Flynn | D'Agostini–Hodgson–Foligno | Tallinder–McBain | Weber–Myers | Ehrhoff–Sulzer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purcell–Killorn–Stamkos | 6:520.40–0.51 | 2:510.28–0.06 | 1:310.07–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 5:250.34–0.02 | 6:260.53–0.42 | 3:260.16–0.13 | |||
| Johnson–Panik–Palat | 2:220.04–0.04 | 5:250.34–0.07 | 2:450.09–0.17 | 2:110.25–0.07 | 5:110.21–0.04 | |||||
| Filppula–Callahan–Kucherov | 1:450.07–0.18 | 0:490.02–0.00 | 1:200.20–0.00 | 0:420.03–0.09 | 1:050.00–0.03 | 4:020.45–0.08 | 2:390.07–0.21 | 2:010.13–0.09 | ||
| Thompson–Pyatt–Brown | 0:510.00–0.31 | 1:430.10–0.07 | 0:580.00–0.00 | 1:380.01–0.07 | 2:260.04–0.61 | 0:470.09–0.00 | ||||
| Filppula–Callahan–Pyatt | 0:520.03–0.00 | 0:510.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 1:070.00–0.00 | 1:260.00–0.00 | |||||
| Thompson–Kucherov–Brown | 0:550.00–0.00 | 0:330.01–0.00 | ||||||||
| Salo–Hedman | 3:490.15–0.82 | 2:250.04–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.00 | 1:030.05–0.02 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 1:120.03–0.00 | 5:590.16–0.82 | 3:170.17–0.02 | ||
| Carle–Kostka | 1:550.04–0.00 | 1:450.15–0.03 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:000.03–0.09 | 2:440.00–0.00 | 1:200.06–0.03 | 4:420.16–0.14 | |||
| Carle–Barberio | 2:120.06–0.10 | 1:590.11–0.07 | 0:360.05–0.03 | 0:490.00–0.00 | 2:210.48–0.00 | 1:080.00–0.03 | 4:100.08–0.27 | |||
| Brewer–Kostka | 0:330.08–0.00 | 0:540.01–0.07 | 1:210.07–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 5:170.19–0.21 | |||||
| Brewer–Barberio | 0:530.00–0.04 | 2:140.30–0.03 | 0:320.07–0.00 | 2:280.11–0.11 | 1:360.29–0.09 | 1:020.03–0.00 | ||||
| Salo–Brewer | 2:250.25–0.08 | 0:570.00–0.00 | 0:300.13–0.00 | 0:570.18–0.02 | 3:010.19–0.34 | |||||
| Kostka–Hedman | 0:520.02–0.00 | 0:560.02–0.00 | 0:340.02–0.00 | 1:320.02–0.00 | 1:290.03–0.00 | |||||
| Barberio–Hedman | ||||||||||
| Salo–Carle | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:350.14–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TBLBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Matt CarleTBL | 31 | 22:26 | 0:43 | 1:38 | 5 | 1 |
 Jamie McBainBUF | 24 | 21:35 | 0:54 | 1:41 | 2 | 5 |
 Steven StamkosTBL | 23 | 21:03 | 0:55 | 2:18 | 5 | 4 |
 Alex KillornTBL | 25 | 20:58 | 0:50 | 1:39 | 5 | 4 |
 Tyler MyersBUF | 26 | 20:58 | 0:48 | 1:58 | 1 | 4 |
 Teddy PurcellTBL | 26 | 20:46 | 0:48 | 2:24 | 5 | 4 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 20 | 20:22 | 1:01 | 1:42 | 3 | 1 |
 Christian EhrhoffBUF | 27 | 20:22 | 0:45 | 1:27 | 2 | 4 |
 Henrik TallinderBUF | 22 | 19:23 | 0:53 | 1:41 | 2 | 6 |
 Marcus FolignoBUF | 28 | 19:20 | 0:41 | 1:26 | 6 | 2 |
 Valtteri FilppulaTBL | 23 | 19:06 | 0:50 | 1:40 | 7 | 1 |
 Michael KostkaTBL | 22 | 18:57 | 0:52 | 1:24 | 7 | 1 |
 Sami SaloTBL | 27 | 18:37 | 0:41 | 1:17 | 2 | 4 |
 Alexander SulzerBUF | 26 | 18:36 | 0:43 | 1:20 | 1 | 4 |
 Mike WeberBUF | 25 | 18:25 | 0:44 | 1:37 | 1 | 4 |
 Drew StaffordBUF | 25 | 18:09 | 0:44 | 1:24 | 2 | 5 |
 Eric BrewerTBL | 26 | 18:00 | 0:42 | 1:36 | 2 | 6 |
 Ville LeinoBUF | 23 | 18:00 | 0:47 | 1:45 | 1 | 5 |
 Cody HodgsonBUF | 25 | 17:57 | 0:43 | 1:21 | 7 | 1 |
 Tyler EnnisBUF | 25 | 17:45 | 0:43 | 1:45 | 2 | 5 |
 Chris StewartBUF | 24 | 16:40 | 0:42 | 1:18 | 6 | 1 |
 Ryan CallahanTBL | 21 | 16:33 | 0:47 | 1:40 | 4 | 1 |
 Brian FlynnBUF | 22 | 16:13 | 0:44 | 1:24 | 1 | 6 |
 Matt D'AgostiniBUF | 23 | 15:44 | 0:41 | 1:29 | 1 | 3 |
 Tyler JohnsonTBL | 21 | 15:41 | 0:45 | 1:16 | 3 | 2 |
 Mark BarberioTBL | 22 | 15:40 | 0:43 | 2:13 | 2 | 1 |
 Ondrej PalatTBL | 22 | 15:30 | 0:42 | 1:16 | 3 | 2 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 19 | 13:52 | 0:44 | 1:24 | 4 | 0 |
 Torrey MitchellBUF | 22 | 13:24 | 0:37 | 1:16 | 1 | 7 |
 Richard PanikTBL | 19 | 13:12 | 0:42 | 1:16 | 3 | 2 |
 Matt EllisBUF | 18 | 10:30 | 0:35 | 1:09 | 0 | 5 |
 JT BrownTBL | 15 | 9:42 | 0:39 | 1:12 | 2 | 1 |
 Tom PyattTBL | 13 | 8:38 | 0:40 | 1:13 | 4 | 1 |
 Nate ThompsonTBL | 14 | 8:22 | 0:36 | 1:18 | 3 | 1 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 9 | 6:53 | 0:46 | 1:05 | 1 | 0 |
 John ScottBUF | 9 | 4:26 | 0:30 | 0:48 | 0 | 3 |