Tue, Apr 1, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Calgary Flames 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 19 | 110 | 224 |
| TOR | 07 | 16 | 210 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:50TORJay McClementAssists: Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 16:55CGYMatt StajanAssists: TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 2:16TORDave BollandUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 5:47TORDavid ClarksonGWGAssists: Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 7:24CGYKris RussellAssists: Joe Colborne, Chris Butler · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:33CGYBryce Van Brabant: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:06TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:53TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00TORDion Phaneuf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00TORDion Phaneuf: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00TORDion Phaneuf: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Byron – Backlund14:42
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Colborne – Bouma – Monahan5:38
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Stajan – Hudler5:02
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Westgarth – Bouma – Van Brabant3:55
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie20:46
xG 1.80–1.18 (60%)attempts 29–15goals 1–3
- Giordano – Butler2:04
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Russell – Wotherspoon2:05
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Bodie – Kulemin11:35
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Clarkson – Raymond – Kadri2:15
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Clarkson – Kulemin – Kadri3:01
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Kadri2:45
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRanger – Rielly3:36
xG 0.53–0.12 (82%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson12:31
xG 0.59–0.34 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner3:01
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).