Thu, Dec 11, 2014·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 5, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 314 | 09 | 215 | 538 |
| ARI | 18 | 012 | 012 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11ARIAntoine VermettePPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:57NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Shea Weber, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 11:06NSHJames NealGWGAssists: Mike Fisher, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–1
- P1 18:30NSHRyan EllisAssists: James Neal, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 2:43NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–1
- P3 7:20NSHOlli JokinenAssists: Colin Wilson, Shea Weber · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:40NSHShea Weber: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 4:58ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:06ARIAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min
- P2 18:53NSHAnton Volchenkov: Holding2 min
- P3 10:28NSHRyan Ellis: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:16ARIMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
- P3 14:44ARIMichael Stone: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:09ARIJoe Vitale: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Wilson – Jarnkrok10:34
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg11:36
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Roy – Nystrom – Bourque9:24
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Smith10:40
xG 0.20–0.67 (23%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi15:00
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Jones12:12
xG 0.36–0.50 (41%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm15:40
xG 0.53–0.81 (40%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Boedker12:07
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Vitale – Martinook9:13
xG 0.37–0.18 (66%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Erat – Moss – Hanzal9:50
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Korpikoski – Gagner – Rieder8:07
xG 0.33–0.98 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Murphy11:35
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Stone2:29
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Michalek – Yandle2:47
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).