Sat, Jan 3, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 1, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 19 | 06 | 125 |
| NYR | 411 | 218 | 010 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:46NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Dan Boyle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:53NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 11:18NYRRick NashPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–3
- P1 12:34NYRDan BoyleAssists: Rick Nash, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 2:26NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Matt Hunwick, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–5
- P2 2:48BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Andre Benoit · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
- P2 15:00NYRJesper FastAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:32BUFAndrej Meszaros: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:46BUFCody Hodgson: Abusive language2 min · PPG
- P1 9:53BUFCody McCormick: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:15NYRChris Kreider: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:15BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:15NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:18BUFMike Weber: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:25NYRLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:15NYRCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcCormick – Stafford – Flynn9:53
xG 0.90–0.31 (74%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Kaleta – Deslauriers – Larsson8:49
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons11:37
xG 0.41–0.65 (39%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Stewart – Hodgson – Grigorenko10:16
xG 0.06–1.15 (5%)attempts 3–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Zadorov15:00
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
- Gorges – Ristolainen15:39
xG 0.46–0.51 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Benoit – Meszaros12:23
xG 0.47–0.58 (44%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Hayes – Fast9:21
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:32
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Miller9:00
xG 0.69–0.47 (60%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider10:01
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh12:24
xG 0.61–0.20 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Boyle – Staal12:51
xG 0.80–0.64 (56%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Boyle – Hunwick3:38
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).