Tue, Feb 3, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 113 | 28 | 328 |
| NSH | 211 | 09 | 212 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:52NSHSeth JonesSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 15:31NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 7:49TORDaniel WinnikAssists: Mike Santorelli, Joffrey Lupul · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 2:19TORNazem KadriAssists: David Booth, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2
- P3 2:56TORMike SantorelliAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 6:55NSHMike FisherAssists: Colin Wilson, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 11:18NSHColin WilsonGWGAssists: Mike Fisher, James Neal · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:20NSHShea Weber: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:52NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:42TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:08NSHPaul Gaustad: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 18:52TORKorbinian Holzer: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:28NSHMike Fisher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:40TORJoffrey Lupul: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Winnik – Kadri3:23
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Booth – Kadri – Panik7:35
xG 0.76–0.54 (59%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Clarkson – Komarov – Holland8:06
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:08
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Gardiner16:45
xG 1.17–0.37 (76%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Robidas – Holzer9:44
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly13:27
xG 0.49–0.77 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Wilson9:00
xG 0.86–0.18 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Cullen – Bourque – Jarnkrok9:59
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg8:58
xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Beck7:20
xG 0.05–0.69 (7%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Ekholm12:02
xG 0.97–0.41 (70%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Bartley – Jones11:45
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi16:25
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).