Sun, Feb 22, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 113 | 28 | 432 |
| COL | 15 | 38 | 15 | 518 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:53TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:21COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:10COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 3:39COLMatt DucheneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 5:51TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–3
- P2 12:50COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 7:20COLAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Dennis Everberg · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 11:43TBLBrett ConnollyAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 18:58TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:50COLMax Talbot: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:29TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:03COLZach Redmond: Holding2 min
- P2 15:12COLTyson Barrie: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:47COLNate Guenin: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:47TBLBrenden Morrow: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18TBLBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Killorn – Stamkos12:40
xG 0.96–0.71 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:44
xG 0.75–0.51 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Filppula – Connolly – Paquette10:40
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Drouin6:44
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Barberio10:57
xG 1.06–0.23 (82%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Hedman – Nesterov7:48
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman2:41
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Everberg11:43
xG 0.67–0.67 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Carey7:10
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:53
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 3–1
- Iginla – Talbot – Duchene13:04
xG 0.11–0.52 (17%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Elliott11:13
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Guenin – Barrie14:34
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Stuart – Holden14:50
xG 0.52–0.65 (45%)attempts 10–16goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).