Thu, Mar 5, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 17 | 113 | 227 |
| TBL | 213 | 010 | 28 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:17TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 6:48TORDavid BoothAssists: Peter Holland · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 6:31TBLVladislav NamestnikovGWGAssists: Andrej Sustr, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 15:14TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Jason Garrison · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 17:42TORRichard PanikAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:18TBLCedric Paquette: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:05TORZach Sill: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:05TBLBraydon Coburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:28TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min
- P2 15:55TORPeter Holland: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:55TBLCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:13TORJames van Riemsdyk: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:09TORDion Phaneuf: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:45TORJoffrey Lupul: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:11TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLindstrom – Smith – Sill6:00
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:12
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Lupul – Booth – Holland8:04
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Panik9:37
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly12:52
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:36
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner14:48
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Killorn – Stamkos11:03
xG 0.82–0.41 (66%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov10:49
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Filppula – Paquette – Drouin7:54
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Morrow – Boyle – Namestnikov8:05
xG 0.07–0.32 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Nesterov12:34
xG 0.64–0.32 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Coburn – Garrison11:15
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Hedman – Sustr15:27
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).