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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 5, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.

TBL winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:16Shot by Panik, saved by Bishop
  3. P1 0:18Paquette: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Stralman, Hedman, Paquette, Drouin · TOR Phaneuf, Komarov, Gardiner, Kadri, Panik

  4. P1 3:13Shot by Callahan, saved by Bernier
  5. P1 3:50Shot by Robidas, saved by Bishop
  6. P1 4:25Goal by Kucherov (Palat, Johnson)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Coburn, Garrison, Johnson, Palat, Kucherov · TOR Robidas, Brewer, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak

  7. P1 4:46Shot by Filppula, saved by Bernier
  8. P1 4:57Shot by Drouin, saved by Bernier
  9. P1 5:01Shot by Drouin, saved by Bernier
  10. P1 5:12Shot by Callahan, saved by Bernier
  11. P1 5:56Shot by Kucherov, saved by Bernier
  12. P1 6:43Shot by Kadri, saved by Bishop
  13. P1 10:16Shot by Rielly, saved by Bishop
  14. P1 11:12Shot by Killorn, saved by Bernier
  15. P1 13:39Shot by Kadri, saved by Bishop
  16. P1 15:00Shot by Garrison, saved by Bernier
  17. P1 15:10Shot by Killorn, saved by Bernier
  18. P1 15:17Goal by Callahan (Stamkos)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Coburn, Callahan, Killorn, Garrison, Stamkos · TOR Robidas, Brewer, Lupul, Booth, Holland

  19. P1 17:33Shot by Johnson, saved by Bernier
  20. P1 17:46Shot by Gardiner, saved by Bishop
  21. P1 18:05Shot by Killorn, saved by Bernier
  22. P1 18:40Shot by Booth, saved by Bishop
  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 1:19Shot by Coburn, saved by Bernier
  26. P2 1:56Shot by Nesterov, saved by Bernier
  27. P2 3:26Shot by Paquette, saved by Bernier
  28. P2 3:43Shot by Rielly, saved by Bishop
  29. P2 3:48Shot by Bozak, saved by Bishop
  30. P2 5:57Shot by Paquette, saved by Bernier
  31. P2 6:31Shot by Hedman, saved by Bernier
  32. P2 6:48Goal by Booth (Holland)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Hedman, Paquette, Sustr, Drouin · TOR Robidas, Brewer, Lupul, Booth, Holland

  33. P2 7:05Sill: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Morrow, Coburn, Boyle, Garrison, Namestnikov · TOR Lindstrom, Polak, Smith, Sill, Rielly

  34. P2 7:05Coburn: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Morrow, Coburn, Boyle, Garrison, Namestnikov · TOR Lindstrom, Polak, Smith, Sill, Rielly

  35. P2 7:19Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Bishop4v4
  36. P2 12:27Shot by Kadri, saved by Bishop
  37. P2 12:28Sustr: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Callahan, Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Sustr · TOR Booth, Polak, Komarov, Kadri, Rielly

  38. P2 13:12Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Bishop4v5
  39. P2 15:55Holland: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Hedman, Paquette, Sustr, Drouin · TOR Robidas, Brewer, Lupul, Booth, Holland

  40. P2 15:55Paquette: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Hedman, Paquette, Sustr, Drouin · TOR Robidas, Brewer, Lupul, Booth, Holland

  41. P2 16:21Shot by Kucherov, saved by Bernier
  42. P2 16:30Shot by Stamkos, saved by Bernier
  43. P2 16:31Shot by Stamkos, saved by Bernier
  44. P2 16:37Shot by Stamkos, saved by Bernier
  45. P2 17:29Shot by Panik, saved by Bishop
  46. P2 18:27Shot by Kucherov, saved by Bernier
  47. P2 19:13van Riemsdyk: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Boyle, Stralman, Garrison, Drouin · TOR Polak, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly

  48. P2 0:00Period end
  49. P3 0:00Period start
  50. P3 2:07Shot by Namestnikov, saved by Bernier
  51. P3 3:11Shot by Gardiner, saved by Bishop
  52. P3 3:57Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Bishop
  53. P3 4:45Shot by Kessel, saved by Bishop
  54. P3 5:27Shot by Johnson, saved by Bernier
  55. P3 6:08Shot by Boyle, saved by Bernier
  56. P3 6:31Goal by Namestnikov (Sustr, Hedman)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Hedman, Namestnikov, Paquette, Sustr · TOR Lindstrom, Phaneuf, Smith, Gardiner, Sill

  57. P3 6:55Shot by Callahan, saved by Bernier
  58. P3 7:22Shot by Booth, saved by Bishop
  59. P3 8:50Shot by Boyle, saved by Bernier
  60. P3 9:09Phaneuf: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Morrow, Boyle, Stralman, Hedman, Drouin · TOR Phaneuf, Komarov, Gardiner, Kadri, Panik

  61. P3 13:30Shot by Panik, saved by Bishop
  62. P3 13:45Lupul: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Hedman, Namestnikov, Paquette, Sustr · TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Booth, Gardiner, Holland

  63. P3 14:04Shot by Callahan, saved by Bernier5v4
  64. P3 15:14Goal by Killorn (Stamkos, Garrison)5v4+1 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Killorn, Garrison, Stamkos, Drouin · TOR Robidas, Brewer, Komarov, Bozak

  65. P3 16:17Shot by Lindstrom, saved by Bishop
  66. P3 16:21Shot by Smith, saved by Bishop
  67. P3 16:32Shot by Lindstrom, saved by Bishop
  68. P3 17:30Shot by Panik, saved by Bishop
  69. P3 17:42Goal by Panik (Phaneuf, Kadri)0 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Callahan, Stralman, Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman · TOR Brewer, Phaneuf, Komarov, Kadri, Panik

  70. P3 18:11Kucherov: High sticking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Coburn, Garrison, Johnson, Palat, Kucherov · TOR Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Kadri, Rielly

  71. P3 19:04Shot by Rielly, saved by Bishop4v6
  72. P3 19:37Shot by Kessel, saved by Bishop4v6
  73. P3 19:38Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Bishop4v6
  74. P3 0:00Period end
  75. P3 0:00Final