Wed, Mar 11, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 211 | 19 | 08 | 05 | 0 | 333 |
| TOR | 28 | 04 | 117 | 05 | 1 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Tyler Ennis, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:09TORBrandon KozunAssists: Joakim Lindstrom, Andrew MacWilliam · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 14:30TORLeo KomarovAssists: David Booth, Trevor Smith · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 16:02BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Matt Moulson, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 11:50BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Johan Larsson, Tyler Ennis · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 16:35TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 2. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 4. TOR Peter Holland stopped
- 5. BUF Brian Gionta stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:21TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:27BUFZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P1 8:58BUFZac Dalpe: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:58BUFCody Hodgson: Holding2 min
- P3 6:41TORAndrew MacWilliam: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:03BUFNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P3 15:32BUFMike Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Varone won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Larsson12:44
xG 1.16–0.28 (80%)attempts 17–12goals 3–0
- Hodgson – Deslauriers – Schaller3:27
xG 0.04–0.01 (74%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Varone11:50
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Ellis – Hodgson – D'Amigo3:30
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Bogosian17:24
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Strachan – Zadorov9:11
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Meszaros – Ristolainen14:07
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Komarov – Smith10:31
xG 0.73–0.09 (89%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Kessel – Bozak – Panik2:43
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Kessel – Bozak4:58
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak4:26
xG 0.04–0.27 (14%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacWilliam – Erixon8:19
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Brewer – Rielly13:44
xG 0.19–0.42 (32%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:05
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).