Wed, Mar 11, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
48%
10%
9%
34%
TOR winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Moulson–Ennis–Larsson | Gionta–Foligno–Varone | Dalpe–Deslauriers–Schaller | Ellis–Hodgson–D'Amigo | Hodgson–Deslauriers–Schaller | Ellis–D'Amigo–Schaller | Ellis–Dalpe–D'Amigo | Weber–Bogosian | Meszaros–Ristolainen | Strachan–Zadorov | Meszaros–Bogosian | Ristolainen–Zadorov | Strachan–Meszaros | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booth–Komarov–Smith | 2:260.22–0.06 | 3:340.34–0.00 | 2:110.09–0.01 | 0:550.00–0.00 | 2:280.02–0.00 | 3:430.24–0.04 | 2:130.25–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:040.22–0.00 | ||||
| van Riemsdyk–Holland–Panik | 2:590.00–0.63 | 3:000.00–0.14 | 1:150.01–0.04 | 3:010.00–0.26 | 2:190.00–0.02 | 2:250.02–0.51 | 0:330.01–0.00 | ||||||
| Lindstrom–Kessel–Bozak | 1:160.00–0.11 | 0:550.00–0.00 | 1:110.02–0.01 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 1:330.02–0.00 | 1:160.00–0.14 | 1:360.00–0.08 | ||||||
| Lupul–Kessel–Bozak | 1:540.04–0.10 | 1:540.00–0.14 | 2:140.04–0.00 | 1:090.00–0.20 | 0:380.00–0.02 | ||||||||
| Kessel–Bozak–Panik | 0:390.00–0.06 | 0:310.00–0.04 | 0:570.00–0.00 | 1:080.00–0.06 | |||||||||
| Lupul–Sill–Kozun | 1:040.00–0.03 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 1:340.00–0.03 | ||||||||||
| Lindstrom–Sill–Kozun | 0:420.00–0.00 | 0:340.04–0.03 | 1:290.04–0.03 | ||||||||||
| Lindstrom–Lupul–Sill | 0:450.00–0.02 | 0:450.00–0.02 | |||||||||||
| Kessel–Bozak–Kozun | 0:330.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Lupul–Booth–Smith | 0:420.00–0.04 | 1:010.00–0.04 | |||||||||||
| Phaneuf–Gardiner | 3:000.02–0.52 | 9:000.31–0.18 | 4:510.00–0.00 | 5:580.36–0.32 | 1:440.21–0.43 | 0:580.00–0.06 | 0:460.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Brewer–Rielly | 6:320.08–0.24 | 1:370.05–0.12 | 1:100.02–0.00 | 2:030.01–0.04 | 1:220.03–0.00 | 8:090.13–0.17 | 2:040.05–0.09 | 2:200.00–0.10 | 0:330.01–0.00 | ||||
| MacWilliam–Erixon | 2:400.09–0.03 | 1:530.02–0.03 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:540.06–0.03 | 1:360.00–0.00 | 2:280.00–0.10 | 3:170.11–0.01 | 0:510.06–0.00 | |||||
| Gardiner–Rielly | 0:520.00–0.22 | 1:130.00–0.24 | 0:520.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Brewer–MacWilliam | 1:120.10–0.11 | 1:230.00–0.14 | |||||||||||
| Brewer–Erixon | 0:480.00–0.02 | 0:480.00–0.02 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TORBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Zach BogosianBUF | 38 | 30:53 | 0:49 | 1:48 | 5 | 9 |
 Dion PhaneufTOR | 32 | 27:58 | 0:52 | 1:53 | 2 | 8 |
 Mike WeberBUF | 37 | 25:51 | 0:42 | 1:23 | 4 | 10 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 30 | 25:48 | 0:52 | 1:28 | 6 | 3 |
 Jake GardinerTOR | 32 | 25:36 | 0:48 | 1:47 | 5 | 5 |
 Rasmus RistolainenBUF | 31 | 24:51 | 0:48 | 1:52 | 3 | 4 |
 Brian GiontaBUF | 31 | 23:27 | 0:45 | 1:26 | 6 | 8 |
 Phil KesselTOR | 23 | 23:22 | 1:01 | 1:42 | 6 | 1 |
 Tyler BozakTOR | 26 | 23:17 | 0:54 | 1:33 | 6 | 4 |
 Eric BrewerTOR | 25 | 22:01 | 0:53 | 2:16 | 3 | 1 |
 Peter HollandTOR | 25 | 20:38 | 0:50 | 1:25 | 7 | 2 |
 Tyler EnnisBUF | 22 | 20:00 | 0:55 | 1:52 | 2 | 3 |
 Marcus FolignoBUF | 28 | 19:50 | 0:43 | 1:09 | 6 | 5 |
 Andrej MeszarosBUF | 26 | 19:45 | 0:46 | 1:28 | 1 | 4 |
 James van RiemsdykTOR | 22 | 18:24 | 0:50 | 1:33 | 5 | 1 |
 Matt MoulsonBUF | 22 | 18:08 | 0:49 | 1:45 | 4 | 4 |
 Johan LarssonBUF | 23 | 18:05 | 0:47 | 1:28 | 3 | 3 |
 Richard PanikTOR | 21 | 17:43 | 0:51 | 1:37 | 7 | 2 |
 Leo KomarovTOR | 21 | 16:18 | 0:47 | 1:59 | 1 | 4 |
 Tim ErixonTOR | 19 | 16:11 | 0:51 | 1:36 | 7 | 1 |
 David BoothTOR | 21 | 16:04 | 0:46 | 1:30 | 2 | 4 |
 Trevor SmithTOR | 22 | 15:11 | 0:41 | 1:55 | 1 | 7 |
 Tyson StrachanBUF | 21 | 14:52 | 0:42 | 1:28 | 2 | 5 |
 Phil VaroneBUF | 20 | 14:41 | 0:44 | 1:34 | 4 | 2 |
 Tim SchallerBUF | 22 | 14:27 | 0:39 | 1:08 | 0 | 5 |
 Nikita ZadorovBUF | 22 | 13:59 | 0:38 | 1:28 | 5 | 2 |
 Joffrey LupulTOR | 16 | 13:09 | 0:49 | 1:32 | 3 | 0 |
 Nicolas DeslauriersBUF | 16 | 12:53 | 0:48 | 1:08 | 2 | 1 |
 Andrew MacWilliamTOR | 16 | 12:24 | 0:47 | 1:33 | 1 | 2 |
 Jerry D'AmigoBUF | 20 | 11:49 | 0:35 | 1:17 | 0 | 2 |
 Matt EllisBUF | 20 | 10:51 | 0:33 | 0:52 | 0 | 3 |
 Joakim LindstromTOR | 11 | 9:42 | 0:53 | 1:40 | 2 | 1 |
 Cody HodgsonBUF | 12 | 8:54 | 0:45 | 1:23 | 1 | 0 |
 Zac DalpeBUF | 15 | 7:45 | 0:31 | 0:57 | 2 | 2 |
 Brandon KozunTOR | 8 | 6:08 | 0:46 | 1:11 | 2 | 0 |
 Zach SillTOR | 8 | 6:06 | 0:46 | 1:26 | 2 | 0 |