Mon, Mar 23, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 016 | 15 | 232 |
| TOR | 08 | 010 | 118 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:58MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P3 9:08MINThomas VanekGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Justin Fontaine · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 13:36TORJake GardinerAssists: Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.35 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:38MINCharlie Coyle: Holding2 min
- P1 2:43TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:04TORPhil Kessel: Interference2 min
- P2 4:10MINJordan Leopold: Holding2 min
- P2 9:09TORJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:03MINThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:54TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:54MINKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:45MINErik Haula: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund9:28
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Stewart – Niederreiter11:02
xG 0.21–0.22 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine8:33
xG 0.33–0.63 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Bergenheim – Brodziak – Haula8:08
xG 0.06–0.68 (8%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Suter – Brodin19:02
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Leopold – Dumba8:14
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon13:25
xG 0.29–1.43 (17%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:38
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Kozun – Carrick5:29
xG 0.24–0.14 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Komarov – Sill – Panik7:36
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Lupul – Booth – Smith7:33
xG 0.04–0.43 (9%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly14:37
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Brewer – Gardiner2:32
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Phaneuf14:58
xG 0.37–0.48 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).