Wed, Apr 1, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 27 | 011 | 327 |
| BUF | 113 | 113 | 25 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48BUFZac DalpeAssists: Matt Ellis, Andrej Meszaros · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 16:41TOREric BrewerAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 0:47TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 13:24TORNazem KadriAssists: Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 13:54BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Andre Benoit, Phil Varone · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 1:33BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Johan Larsson, Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 3:14BUFMatt EllisGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Brian Gionta · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:15BUFMikhail Grigorenko: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:15BUFJohan Larsson: Holding2 min
- P1 17:52TORZach Sill: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:34TORNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:05TORJoakim Lindstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:32TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:34TORTJ Brennan: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:01BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:41BUFAnders Lindback: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Grigorenko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:45
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Sill – Panik – Bailey4:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Komarov – Kadri6:22
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Lupul – Booth – Smith5:10
xG 0.03–0.40 (6%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly9:58
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Rielly2:10
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner3:12
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHodgson – Dalpe – Varone6:29
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ellis – Hodgson – Dalpe2:07
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Grigorenko11:46
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Moulson – Ennis – Larsson12:11
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Meszaros12:26
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Benoit – Zadorov12:04
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Weber – Bogosian15:06
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).