Sun, Apr 5, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 012 | 117 | 114 | 02 | 1 | 245 |
| TOR | 122 | 16 | 08 | 02 | 2 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Eric Brewer, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:15OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.38 xG1–1
- P2 12:42TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Peter Holland, Eric Brewer · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 1:09OTTMark StonePPAssists: Kyle Turris, Clarke MacArthur · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 2. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 3. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 4. TOR Joffrey Lupul scored
- 5. OTT Mark Stone stopped
- 6. TOR Joakim Lindstrom stopped
- 7. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 8. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 9. OTT Mike Hoffman stopped
- 10. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 11. OTT Clarke MacArthur stopped
- 12. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 13. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 14. TOR Peter Holland scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:48OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:51TORRichard Panik: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:06TORAndrew MacWilliam: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:15TORPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09TORRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:09OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:40TORRichard Panik: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:07TORPeter Holland: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:11OTTBobby Ryan: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holland won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Chiasson – Zibanejad3:10
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar11:12
xG 0.89–0.55 (62%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Legwand – Smith – Chiasson5:12
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad6:12
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Ceci3:32
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:01
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci10:45
xG 1.08–1.04 (51%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLindstrom – Kadri – Panik10:07
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Booth – Sill – Bailey4:53
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:47
xG 1.16–1.00 (54%)attempts 17–27goals 0–0
- Lupul – Komarov – Holland9:49
xG 0.48–0.76 (39%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Phaneuf15:53
xG 1.20–0.61 (66%)attempts 23–20goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Rielly17:34
xG 0.46–0.76 (38%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
- MacWilliam – Erixon9:32
xG 0.19–0.88 (18%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).