Thu, Oct 15, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 4, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 29 | 03 | 424 |
| ARI | 06 | 211 | 113 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:22MINZach ParisePPAssists: Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 10:20MINThomas VanekAssists: Justin Fontaine · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 7:07MINMikko KoivuSHGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P2 12:14ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Max Domi · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 12:36MINMikael GranlundAssists: Zach Parise, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 19:50ARIMax DomiAssists: Martin Hanzal, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 15:12ARIMichael StoneAssists: Shane Doan, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 1:20MINNate Prosser: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:14ARIBoyd Gordon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:45ARIAnthony Duclair: Interference2 min
- P1 18:41ARIMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:43MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min
- P2 14:11MINJustin Fontaine: Interference2 min
- P2 14:42ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:42ARISteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:42MINErik Haula: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:31MINNate Prosser: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:06MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:22MINRyan Carter: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:22ARISteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:43MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:57ARISteve Downie: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:01MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:44ARIMax Domi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund9:15
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter8:17
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 11–3goals 0–2
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine7:31
xG 0.05–0.06 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Porter – Carter – Haula4:24
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser7:46
xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon9:19
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba10:12
xG 0.13–0.39 (24%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Duclair – Domi2:49
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Chipchura3:49
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gordon – Downie – Martinook5:51
xG 0.01–0.01 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Boedker – Rieder3:01
xG 0.12–0.15 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Dahlbeck2:48
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson3:14
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck7:01
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).